Coincidences are rare in diplomacy. It may be significant to keep a note of that as the issue of the killing of Khalistan separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar blows up between India and Canada. The timing of the allegations, each time, from Canada and the escalation of the row despite Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's domestic political troubles indicate that the actions may have been carefully thought through rather than being just a diversionary tactic, which it initially appeared to be. Here's why.
America Has Canada's Back
In the latest round of allegations, Canadian foreign minister Melanie Joly said about the Nijjar killing investigation that the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) “gathered information that established linkages between the investigation and agents of the Government of India". It was this message that the Deputy Commissioner of Federal Policing, Mark Flynn, wanted to communicate to his Indian counterpart last week. When the attempts were unsuccessful, he met with officials of the Indian government, along with National Security and Intelligence Advisor (NSIA) Nathalie Drouin and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs David Morrison over the weekend.
The Canadian government's decision to expel the diplomats has been based on the RCMP's findings and was taken within a day of the stated meeting, where the NSIA was present along with his Indian counterpart, Ajit Doval, as reported by a US publication. What explains the hurry to present the evidence to India and then immediately act on it with expulsion? Could this have been prompted because the Indian enquiry committee looking into similar allegations by the US was visiting Washington DC just a day after Canada's action?
Now, turn the clock back to September last year when Justin Trudeau told the Canadian Parliament that Indian government agents possibly had a hand in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside a gurudwara in Surrey, British Columbia. Many were taken aback by the public announcement by Trudeau on a sensitive issue.
That Trudeau may have wanted to create a distraction from domestic issues only partly explained his action. What seemed more probable was the fact that he was possibly aware of the parallel investigations underway in the US. That Canada was sounded out by the US on the issue is now quite evident, even though what we know now is only that a Five Eyes country alerted Ottawa. Within 10 days of Trudeau's Parliament statement, the US released details of their investigations against Indian national Nikhil Gupta and an Indian government employee referred to as 'CC1' by the US Department of Justice, who plotted the foiled assassination bid on Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, another Khalistani extremist who lives in New York.
The unfolding of the events in September 2023 and today should give a clear sense that there is much greater coordination on this matter between the US and Canada than what meets the eye. Having America's backing on the issue can explain the steps that Canada has taken and the ones it has indicated when Joly did not rule out sanctions by saying that “everything is on the table”.
Foreign Interference
India has repeatedly raised the issue of Khalistan with Canada as a threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. With the killing of Nijjar, Canada is using the argument of sovereignty. The issue is also being conflated with the overarching concern over foreign interference. As a result, the matter has gained traction not just with the public but also politically from an otherwise adversarial opposition, the Conservatives. Pierre Poilievre said, “Any foreign interference from any country, including India, is unacceptable and must be stopped.”
A Parliamentary Committee report identified India as the second most significant foreign threat to Canada following China. The National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians report said, “In addition to interference against Canadian democratic processes and institutions by the PRC, India and to a limited extent Pakistan, other countries, notably Iran engaged in episodic foreign interference directed towards suppressing dissidents and critics in Canada. Known as 'transnational repression,' these activities represent one of the most egregious forms of foreign interference.”
The issue of foreign interference could be a prickly matter for any sovereign nation but more so for Canada and the US in the recent past with their concerns about China and Russia. Hence, this issue is one that generates fear or worry, and thus has the power to mobilise both public and political opinion around India.
Another Five Eyes country, Australia, had earlier reported about a "nest of spies" that was discovered by the Australian Security Intelligence Organization in 2020. Australian news channel ABC reported that “National security and government figures have now confirmed to the ABC that India's foreign intelligence service was responsible for the 'nest of spies', and 'a number' of Indian officials were later removed from Australia by the Morrison government.”
With these two broad factors – US backing and foreign interference – closely associated with the Nijjar killing, the Justin Trudeau government is making drastic and dramatic moves, but perhaps with the knowledge that any backfire will be cushioned.
(Maha Siddiqui is a journalist who has extensively reported on public policy and global affairs.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
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